Immigration Projections: Only as Good as the Assumptions Behind Them
· WOWERI
A recent report by a Yale think tank claims that lower immigration will lead to lower productivity growth. However, each link in the chain depends on assumptions that are more contestable than the report implies. The report raises important questions about the future of immigration policy.
Immigration Projections: Only as Good as the Assumptions Behind Them
A recent report by a Yale think tank claims that lower immigration will lead to lower productivity growth. However, each link in the chain depends on assumptions that are more contestable than the report implies. The report is based on the following logic: lower immigration means fewer working-age people; fewer working-age people means fewer potential entrepreneurs; fewer entrepreneurs means fewer new firms; and fewer new firms means lower productivity. But each link in the chain depends on assumptions that are more contestable than the report implies. For example, the assumption that lower immigration will lead to fewer entrepreneurs is not as straightforward as it seems. According to USCIS data, the number of applications for green cards has been decreasing in recent years. However, this does not necessarily mean that the number of entrepreneurs is also decreasing.
Conclusion
The recent report by the Yale think tank raises important questions about the future of immigration policy. However, it is essential to consider all assumptions and facts before drawing conclusions about the impact of immigration on the economy.
What to do next
Source: cis.org